Showing posts with label #Ukraine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #Ukraine. Show all posts

Trump, Taiwan and the Ukraine Pivot

 Since the start of President Trump's second term, and especially following the unprecedented Oval Office confrontation last February between Trump, J.D. Vance and Ukrainian President Zelensky - Washington's policy on Ukraine has undergone a dramatic shift.

While this realignment has alarmed many of America's traditional European allies, the ripple effects have been felt far beyond Europe, including in Taiwan. Despite the absence of a formal treaty, U.S. support has long been a cornerstone of Taiwan's security strategy in deterring invasion by China who claim Taiwan as part of its sovereign territory, despite having never controlled or occupied it.

In this episode, we speak with Marcin Jerzewski (X: @yehaoqin , BlueSky: yehaoqin.bsky.social) Head of the European Values Center in Taipei about how Taiwan is interpreting Washington's evolving stance on Ukraine. We explore whether President Trump's territorial rhetoric and trade initiatives are fueling skepticism in Taiwan - and, how the Chinese Communist Party is leveraging the current situation to erode Taiwan's trust in the U.S.

Date of Recording: May 27th, 2025.




Thumbnail picture shows 3 flags standing side by side - Ukraine, US and Taiwan (RoC).
Trump, Taiwan and the Ukraine Pivot


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Music Credits:
Title music: Uplifting by Plastic3 used under license 


#Trump2025 #Taiwan #UkraineWar #USForeignPolicy #Geopolitics #ChinaTaiwan #IndoPacific #TaiwanStrait #PodcastEpisode #PoliticsPodcast

Wolf Warrior Visits - Unpacking China's Interest in Ireland

On February 16th and 17th, China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi (王毅) visited Ireland. Mr. Wang is the second senior Chinese official to visit Ireland in just over a year, following a visit by Premier Li Qiang (李强) in January of 2024.

In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, we dive deep into China's growing interest in Ireland and how this dynamic intersects with broader EU-China relations. We examine how the rise of protectionist policies under US President Donald Trump coupled with China's desire to reshape the international rules-based world order creates challenges for Ireland who find themselves navigating a complex geopolitical terrain.

We examine the ripple effects of these global power dynamics on frontline democracies like Taiwan and Ukraine and analyze whether Ireland could become a new battleground in this struggle for global influence.

Tune in to this episode of Perspectives with Neilo as we take a closer look at the circumstances surrounding the latest Chinese visit to Ireland and what factors could be prompting this uptick of interest in a turbulent geopolitical landscape. 

Date of Recording: February 22nd, 2025.



Picture of Ireland's deputy prime minister (Tanaiste) Simon Harris welcoming Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Dublin on February 17th, 2025. Behind them are (L-R) Irish, EU and Chinese flags.
Irish Deputy Prime Minister (Tanaiste) Simon Harris welcomes Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Ireland on February 17th, 2025



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Audio transition: Sound Soul by Diamond_Tunes via Pixabay

 #China #Ireland #EUChinaRelations #Geopolitics #Democracy #Taiwan #Ukraine #InternationalRelations #ForeignPolicy #USChinaRelations #WolfWarriorDiplomacy #Podcast #News #Politics #WangYi

Taiwan, Ireland and Wolf Warrior Interference - Interview with Senator Gerry Horkan

In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, we dive deep into the heart of international diplomacy and the challenges faced by democracies on the frontlines. Senator Gerry Horkan (Ireland) shares his firsthand experience and insights from his July 2024 visit to Taiwan, a democratic beacon in the Asia-Pacific region. Horkan reflects on the warm reception he received in Taiwan, as well as the reported backlash from China's Wolf Warrior diplomacy.

The Chinese Ambassador to Ireland's harsh criticisms of Horkan and his colleagues' visit highlight the geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan's sovereignty and its ongoing struggle for global recognition.  As an advocate for pro-democracy values, Horkan discusses the importance of supporting Taiwan, a nation under constant threat of aggression from China.

This episode shares some valuable insights for anyone interested in global democracy, foreign policy and the delicate balance of international relations in a world increasingly under threat by authoritarian regimes. Whether you're following the situation in Taiwan, Ukraine or other frontline democracies, this interview provides a glimpse into the global struggle for democratic ideals in an era of Wolf Warrior diplomacy.

Date of Recording: January 26th, 2025.




Irish Senate delegation visiting Taiwan in July, 2024 (L-R) Diarmuid Wilson (FF), Garret Ahern (FG), Sharon Keogan (Ind), Gerry Horkan (FF) and Gerard Craughwell (Ind). Listen to our interview with Gerry Horkan at www.pwneilo.com or by searching for Perspectives with Neilo wherever you get your podcasts
Irish Senate delegation visiting Taiwan in July, 2024 (L-R) Diarmuid Wilson (FF), Garret Ahern (FG), Sharon Keogan (Ind), Gerry Horkan (FF) and Gerard Craughwell (Ind)


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Additional Information on the topics discussed in this episode:



    You might also like:

    • EU in Taiwan - report from the 2023 Europe Festival in Taipei including interviews with representatives of various EU trade offices.


    #democracy, #pro-democracy, #globaldemocracy #WolfWarrior, #WolfWarriorDiplomacy, #geopolitics, #foreignpolicy, #Taiwan, #Ukraine, #China, #Internationalrelations, #CCP, #Ireland, #IrelandTaiwanRelations, 

    Election 2024 - The Other Important Issues

    Ireland's General Election will take place on Friday November 29th, 2024. Overall, 685 candidates are running across 43 constituencies for 174 seats in the next Dail or Parliament. 

    Much of the focus and discussion so far has been on what the mainstream media have dubbed 'Auction Politics' as politicians and their parties try to better each other with promises of various benefits if elected. Examples include, free university fees, child care benefits, dropping the USC charge, reducing the VAT rate on hospitality and so on. 

    While many of these areas are genuinely important, the relentless competition for votes between the different party candidates means that the conversation around a few core issues (cost of living, housing, healthcare) tends to dominate the media coverage at the expense of other topics.

    In this episode, we take a closer look at the three main party's manifestos to see what they have to say about some of the other important issues. Specifically, defending Ireland's democracy, our values and our freedoms, the role of the Media and Press freedom, as well as the party's positions on Foreign Policy, supporting Ukraine, plus their positions on Defense and Security.


    Date of Recording: November 26th, 2024.


    Portrait pictures of the leaders of Ireland's main political parties (L to R) Micheal Martin, Fianna Fail, Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Fein, Simon Harris, Fine Gael
    The leaders of Ireland's main political parties (L to R) Micheal Martin, Fianna Fail, Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Fein, Simon Harris, Fine Gael

    DIVE DEEPER:

    Additional information on the topics discussed in this episode:

    • All of the manifestos referred to in this podcast are available on the party's websites


    Audio transition: Sound Soul by Diamond_Tunes, Pixabay

    #GE24, #FiannaFail, #FineGael, #SinnFein, #Defenddemocracy, #AuctionPolitics, #CriticalThinking, #ETNC, #MERICS, #RSF, #Russia, #China, #Taiwan, #Vote, #Ukraine, #ForeignPolicy, #PressFreedom, #Security, #Defence, #Defense

    Subsidy Showdown - EU Tariffs on Chinese EVs

     Earlier in June, following months of investigation, the European Commission announced new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) in response to massive state subsidies in the forms of research and development grants, sales tax exemptions and supply chain support being provided to Chinese EV makers by Beijing.

    A recent investigation by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank revealed that between 2009 and 2023, the Chinese government is conservatively estimated to have spent over $230 billion US dollars on financial support for its EV makers. This excludes supply chain support, one example of which indicates close to one billion US dollars were supplied to battery giant CATL alone, which last year supplied over 36 per cent  of battery packs in new EVs globally.

    Although countries such as the US and Turkey have already introduced tariffs on Chinese EVs, support among EU states for this move has been divided.

    The EU's provisional duties (which have been revised slightly since our interview) are set to apply by July 4th, 2024, with the investigation set to continue until November 2nd when finalized duties could be imposed for up to five years.

    In this episode, we welcome back Swedish journalist Jojje Olsson (@jojjeols) who shares his insights on the EV tariffs and the reactions within the EU. We discuss how Beijing is already finding ways to circumvent the tariffs, and we also examine how China's ongoing support for Russia in the Ukraine war is impacting EU decision making, and much more.

    Date of Recording: June 18th, 2024.




    Picture of car transporter ship leaving port after unloading cargo cars all parked on the dock
    Car Transporter leaves port after offloading its cargo on the dock

    Photo Credit: CleanTechnica


    DIVE DEEPER:

    Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:

    • Views of China - Laura Silver, Christine Huang and Laura Clancy, Pew Research Center (July 27th, 2023)

    #EVs, #ElectricVehicle, #Tariff, #EU, #CCP, #ChinaSubsidies, #EUTariff, #ChineseEV, #BYD, #SAIC, #Tesla

    China Wake Up Call

    The Consultative Forum on International Security Policy took place in Ireland from June 22nd to 27th across three different locations. The initial session was held at UCC with subsequent sessions taking place at UCG and Dublin Castle. The forum was chaired by Louise Richardson DBE and brought together an extensive range of experts who shared their insights on a wide variety of topics including cyber security, lessons from Ireland's UN security council membership, peacekeeping, neutrality, the triple lock, NATO and much more. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine was top of mind for many, China's increasing assertiveness and ongoing support for Russia was less to the fore.

    Professor Andrew Cottey (@andrewcottey) who is the EU Jean Monnet Chair in European Political Integration at the Department of Government and Politics at UCC was among the panel of experts. His research interests include Chinese foreign policy, Sino-European relations and European relations with the Asia-Pacific region.

    I sat down with him on the third day of the forum in Dublin to talk about China's increasing assertiveness, the perception of China in Ireland, Confucius Institutes, China's influence and disinformation operations and much more.

    Date of Recording: June 26th, 2023.



    Chinese president Xi Jinping travels in motorcade during military inspection event somewhere in China


    DIVE DEEPER

    Additional information and references on the topics covered in this episode;

    • Consultative Forum on International Security Policy - link


    Taipei City Councillor Miao Poya

    Taipei City Councillor, Miao Poya 苗博雅 @miaopoya is a member of Taiwan's Social Democratic Party and was first elected to the council in 2018. She is one of 13 councillors representing the Da'an - Wenshan district of Taipei, an area with an electorate of 400,000 people. 

    When first elected at the age of 31, she was one of Taiwan's first openly lesbian council members. She advocates for workers rights, care of children and the elderly as well as Taiwanese sovereignty and independence. She has held official council positions as Convener of Taipei City Council Transportation Committee and Convener of Taipei City Council Reform Caucus.

    I sat down with her recently to talk about the upcoming Taiwan Presidential election, the difficulties of engaging with authoritarian regimes, the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Taiwan public opinion and how her constituents perceive China's unrelenting gray warfare attacks.


    Date of Recording: May 15th, 2023


    Taipei city councillor Miao Poya with a city scape of Taipei including Taipei 101 in the background


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    Additional information and references on the topics covered in this episode;

    Wolf Warrior Peace Brokering

     At the end of April, China's ambassador to France, Lu Shaye drew the ire of many countries when he commented in an interview on French television that Crimea belongs to Russia and that former Soviet states lack legitimacy. While China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly retracted the statement, the incident amplified doubts as to whether China can be an impartial peace broker in the Russia-Ukraine war.

    Jojje Olsson (@jojjeols) is a journalist and author based in Taiwan and the owner-editor of Sweden's biggest news site about China, kinamedia.se. He wrote that "China's statement about 'illegitimate' Soviet states should be taken seriously".

    Jojje joins me on this episode of Perspectives with Neilo to discuss China's ability to be an impartial peace broker, the significance of wolf warrior Lu Shaye's comments, and the subsequent phone call by Xi Jinping to President Zelenskyy 14 months on from the start of the Russian invasion.

    We also touch on Jojje's own journey and how conditions for journalists in China have changed in the past decade.


    Date of Recording: May 12th, 2023



    DIVE DEEPER

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    The China US Blame Game

     In recent months, we've become accustomed to Russia and its supporters blaming their invasion of Ukraine on NATO expansion and US interference in the region, even though Western nations and Ukraine have repeatedly rejected this narrative.

    Similarly, in the case of Taiwan, the Chinese Communist Party and their supporters blame the United States as the sole agent for escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

    In a recent article by Michael Swaine of the Quincy Institute entitled "The Worrisome Erosion of the One China Policy" published in the National Interest, he frames present tensions as arising over the US refusing to conform to its own One China Policy and instead increasing symbolic and substantive support for Taiwan, thereby provoking China into taking greater escalatory actions.

    Swaine's article was taken to task by Brian Hioe (@brianhioe) in New Bloom Magazine in a response entitled "Nevermind China's drills, Quincy Institute Article view America as sole agent of rising tensions".

    Brian Hioe is one of the founding editors of New Bloom Magazine and a non-resident Fellow at the University of Nottingham's Taiwan Studies Program. He joins me in this episode of Perspectives with Neilo to discuss his response to Swaine's article, the practicalities of the US One China Policy, opinions of the US in Taiwan, why the CCP prefers a military response to diplomatic outreach with the current Taiwan administration and much more.

    Date of Recording: April 26th, 2023.




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    The Beijing Straddle

     As the world recently marked the one year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, increased attention is being paid to China's role and influence on the situation.

    China claim to be neutral and have talked a lot about peace, sovereignty and territorial integrity and have also put forward a peace plan which is officially entitled 'China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis'. But at the same time, China have also announced that they are deepening their relations with Russia.

    In this episode, I chat with Alex Davey, Analyst and Editor at MERICS, the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Germany. We discuss the contradictions of China's position and their ability to broker peace, the current perception of China in Europe and how Ireland is engaging with China including Minister Eamon Ryan's high profile St. Patrick's Day visit to Beijing.




    DIVE DEEPER

    Additional references for further reading;

    The One China "Consensus"


    The 59th Munich Security Conference concluded at the weekend with Russia's war on Ukraine dominating discussions.


    In his speech, Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee insisted that peace in Ukraine and elsewhere in the world is Beijing’s top priority as is respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, words which belie China’s moves to deepen ties with Russia as was seen by his subsequent visit to Moscow.


    During the follow-on interview session Wang was asked if “he could reassure his audience that a military escalation over the Taiwan issue was not imminent ?”


    His reply (via interpreter) was to blame “Taiwan Independence Forces” for undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait which is why, he said, “we must oppose Taiwan Independence” and “observe the one China principle”, the latter which he remarked was “a consensus of the international community”.


    Wang Yi’s diatribe was an excellent live example of how the CCP seeks to distort facts and conflate terminology to create the illusion of broad agreement of their claim over Taiwan, thereby empowering them to admonish individuals, companies or countries that don’t “comply”.


    The “one China principle” which Wang referred to is distinctly different from the “one China policy”. The latter is a diplomatic acknowledgement of the CCP’s position that there is only one Chinese government whereas the “one China principle” insists that Taiwan is an inalienable part of a Chinese state represented by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and will one day be “reunified” with the motherland.


    Various countries around the world have adopted different positions on the meaning of “one China”. A recent paper entitled ‘The Many “One Chinas”: Multiple Approaches to Taiwan and China’ written by Chong Ja Ian at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, presents a concise up-to-date explanation of this topic. According to his analysis, only 51 countries maintain positions that are consistent with the “one China principle” rather than the 181 countries claimed by Beijing. 


    Ireland belongs to a group of 41 countries that “recognizes PRC as sole legitimate government of China with no explicit mention of Taiwan’s sovereignty”. That said, Ireland’s relationship with Taiwan (or lack of) is very much out of step with the European Union which recognizes the PRC as the sole legitimate government of China, but maintains relations and close cooperation with Taiwan on areas of common interest. The EU operates an Economic and Trade office in Taiwan which it deems “a reliable and valued like-minded partner” and supports the presence of 15 Member States offices in Taipei. Unfortunately, the Irish Trade and Investment Office in Taipei was closed in 2012 and the Irish Government has refused to reopen it despite numerous requests from commercial interests and politicians.


    Back on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Tánaiste Micheál Martin tweeted on Saturday how he had a “constructive meeting” with Wang Yi.  Chinese State media wasted no time reminding everyone that Ireland “...looks forward to strengthening exchanges at all levels with China to promote greater development of bilateral relations, Martin said, adding that Ireland will continue to firmly adhere to the one-China policy.” 


    Perhaps Ireland would be better served by building relations with “reliable and like-minded” partners, rather than focusing on appeasing those who have little regard for democracy but require us to “firmly adhere” to their conflated policies and principles.



    Wang Yi, CCP's top diplomat meets Tanaiste Micheal Martin
    Picture tweeted by @MichealMartinTD at the MSC, Feb 18th, 2023

    DIVE DEEPER

    • China in the world - MSC Conference, 2023 - link
    • The Many "One Chinas": Multiple Approaches to Taiwan and China by Chong Ja Ian, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - link
    • What is the 'One China' policy ? - BBC - link
    • 4 takeaways from this year's important Munich Security Conference - NPR - link
    • China's top diplomat to discuss Ukraine war during Moscow visit - Financial Times - link
    • China ready to resume exchanges in various areas with Ireland: senior diplomat - China.org.cn/Xinhua - link


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