Showing posts with label #defenddemocracy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #defenddemocracy. Show all posts

The FIMI Iceberg - Decoding Foreign Interference Threats

According to data gathered by the European External Action Service (EEAS), last year over eighty countries and over two hundred organizations were targets of attacks from Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference - or FIMI. These attacks targeted everything from major international events like the Paris Olympics, to national elections, regional conflicts and local protests.

The main instigators of these influence operations were China and Russia and they use FIMI to manipulate public opinion, fuel polarization and interfere with democratic processes within the EU and worldwide. They employ a multi-layered strategy using both state and non-state actors to exert long term influence.

According to the EEAS report, "their aim is to destabilize societies, damage democracies, drive wedges between different groups and undermine the EU's global standing". The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas says "FIMI is not merely a tool for disseminating deceptive narratives. It is an integral part of military operations used by foreign states to lay the way for kinetic action on the ground," and "is a major security threat to the EU."

And it would appear that no country is immune. Even a small neutral country like Ireland was mentioned thousands of times by Russian and Chinese influence networks during a monitoring period from September 2023 to September 2024 according to an in-depth study carried out by Norway's Defense Research Strategy.

In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, we chat with Eoin McNamara (X: @McNamara_Eoin  BSky: @mcnamara-eoin.bsky.social), Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki to unpack some of the key findings in these reports. We discuss what motives lie behind these manipulation and interference campaigns as well as some examples of recent case studies and their impact. In addition we talk about the vulnerability of western society to such interference and what democracies can do to protect their citizens from such nefarious interference in the future.

Date of Recording: March 31st, 2025.



The thumbnail is entitled the FIMI Iceberg and shows Russia President Putin and Chinese President Xi - one on either side of an iceberg. They are surrounded by symbols of their state organizations and state controlled media outlets that appear around the iceberg above the water line. Below the waterline are symbols of China's and Russia's covert state linked channels and state aligned channels.
The FIMI Iceberg showing Russia's and China's Overt threats such as official state agencies and state controlled outlets (media organizations) as well as Covert threats (below the water line) such as state linked channels and state aligned channels. See the 3rd EEAS Report on Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference Threats linked below for full details.


DIVE DEEPER:

Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:



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Music Credits:
Title music: Uplifting by Plastic3 used under Tribe of Noise license
Break: Shining Bright Dusk by FreeSoundServer via Pixabay

#FIMI, #InformationWarfare, #Geopolitics, #Cybersecurity, #Disinformation, #DigitalWarfare, #ForeignInterference, #Propaganda, #CyberThreats, #ElectionInterference, #ChinaInfluence, #RussiaInterference, #HybridWarfare, #ChinesePropaganda, #AuthoritarianInfluence, #EUDemocracy, #EuropeanSecurity, #EUPolitics, #EUForeignPolicy, #DefendDemocracy, #IrelandSecurity, #IrelandPolitics, #NeutralIreland, #SocialMediaManipulation, #DigitalPropoganda, #FakeNews, #CyberTactics, #Podcast, #PodcastEpisode

The Double Veto - Interview with Professor Chen Fang-Yu

 Previously in May, we reported on the large pro-democracy street protests in Taipei, Taiwan, in opposition to new legislative reform bills being hastily pushed through the Legislative Yuan or parliament by the China-friendly Kuomintang Party or KMT and their smaller ally, the Taiwan People's Party or TPP.

We'd highly recommend going back and listening to our earlier episodes  - Taiwan Stands up for Democracy and Parliamentary Pandemonium and Public Protests - if you are interested in this topic.

The KMT-TPP combined majority was enough to carry the bills through parliament in May. The amendments aim to give lawmakers powers to subpoena private individuals and government officials, including the President, which could force them to hand over sensitive documents to lawmakers. The KMT and TPP say this is for better government oversight and to help combat corruption.

It also introduces a "contempt of legislature" clause which can impose fines and even prison for officials who disrespect the parliament. The latter has been heavily criticized by legal scholars who say it goes far beyond what is normal in other democratic countries.

After passing through the Legislature in May, the bills appeared before the Executive Yuan in the next step of the process.  The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of President Lai Ching-te opposed the legislation in the parliament. And so it was no surprise when the Executive Yuan with the approval of President Lai requested the Legislature to reconsider these amendments on the week of June 17th - effectively vetoing the legislation and arguing that it would be difficult to implement because it violated various Constitutional Interpretations around the Legislature's scope of power.

It also appears that the KMT and TPP opposition parties have put forward additional items which are under review at this time, namely, Control of Party Assets, Restoration of a pro-China TV station and a number of major transportation infrastructure projects.

On Perspectives with Neilo, our goal is to present a balanced report and we have been eager to hear from a KMT spokesperson on this topic. We've visited KMT headquarters, phoned and emailed multiple times, however, as we publish this podcast, we have not yet been granted an interview with a KMT spokesperson.

On Wednesday June 19th as the bills came back to the Legislative Yuan for review, the Bluebird Movement gathered again on the streets around the parliament despite the scorching heat and thunderstorms. We went there to talk to one of the speakers, Assistant Professor Chen Fang-Yu (@FangYu_80168) from the Department of Political Science at Soochow University in Taiwan. He told us why the protests had returned and about additional bills being proposed by the KMT that are causing concerns. 

Date of Recording: June 19th, 2024




Under Taiwan's legal system, a request for reconsideration can be overturned by a simple legislative majority. On Friday June 21st, a majority of 62 votes comprising KMT, TPP as well as two independents rejected the Cabinet's request to reconsider the amendments to the Law Governing the Legislative Yuan's power and amendments to the criminal code.

This raises the question as to what comes next.

The ruling DPP says these reforms are unconstitutional and that their next step will be to challenge them in court. Experts and analysts we've talked to have told us that an appeal to the Constitutional Court is likely and if an appeal were lodged in June, it could be September or October before a verdict may be expected.

DPP Caucus whip Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘) said that because a constitutional ruling could take some time, the caucus will also file a motion for "a preliminary injunction ruling" by the Constitutional Court to keep the amended laws from being implemented before a final ruling is delivered.

The Bluebird Movement said that their efforts would also continue in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the KMT has also mobilized its supporters to stage counter protests in what they are calling Blue Eagle Action.


Professor Chen Fang-Yu addresses the pro-democracy protesters outside the Legislative Yuan in Taipei on June 19th
Professor Chen Fang-Yu addresses the pro-democracy protesters at the Legislative Yuan on June 19th.



DIVE DEEPER:

Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:


KMT Tweet:



CSIS Tweet:


Taiwan Inauguration Preview - Interview with Brian Hioe

May 20th, 2024 marks the inauguration of the 16th-term President and Vice-President of the Republic of China, Taiwan.

In the January election, Lai Ching-te (賴清德), also known as William Lai, of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and his vice-presidential running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) won the popular vote. Their appointment to the presidential office means a third consecutive term for the DPP as Lai's predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), Taiwan's first female president, concludes her two terms in office.

This is a delicate time for Taiwan-China relations as Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping has explicitly made taking Taiwan by force if necessary, part of his plans to "rejuvenate" China. However, the Taiwanese people are less interested than ever in unifying with the mainland.

In this episode, I'm delighted to welcome Brian Hioe (丘琦欣) back to the podcast. Brian (@brianhioe) is one of the founding editors of New Bloom Magazine and a non-resident Fellow at the University of Nottingham's Taiwan Studies program. I caught up with him in Taipei to talk about the upcoming inauguration, China's increasing gray zone tactics and over-reach, the role of the China-friendly KMT party in the new administration and much more.

Date of Recording: May 15th, 2024.




President elect Lai Ching-te and Vice President elect Hsiao Bi-khim hold hands in victory to the backdrop of the presidential office in Taipei
Taiwan Inauguration Preview



DIVE DEEPER:

Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:

  • New Bloom Magazine (link)

Ireland's Knowledge Deficit on China

 In mid-January, China's Premier Li Qiang paid a two-day state visit to Ireland meeting with President Michael D. Higgins and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, and while Irish officials were keen to emphasize the 45th anniversary of Ireland-China diplomatic relations, little was said publicly about China's human rights abuses and ongoing aggression in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. And although Tanaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs, Micheal Martin previously echoed support for the EU's decision to de-risk trade with China, the top message from the Irish government would appear to be that the economy takes precedence and that Ireland remains committed to free global trade.

Trade between Ireland and China has increased significantly in recent years, to about €40 Billion in two-way goods and services. There are more than 40 Chinese companies in Ireland concentrated mainly in IT, finance and aviation leasing and Ireland has established more than 500 foreign-invested enterprises in China.

The increasing focus on trade supported by pro-PRC business groups and coupled with a deficit of independent China expertise has raised concerns among analysts and academics about the dangers this poses to Ireland's values and interests.

My guest in this episode of Perspectives with Neilo is Alexander Dukalskis (@AlexDukalskis), Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at University College Dublin (UCD) and Director of the UCD Centre for Asia-Pacific Research. I sat down with him recently to discuss the takeaways from Li Qiang's visit, how Ireland is strategically equipped to engage with China, and the apparent lack of China competency when it comes to dealing with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Date of Recording: February 7th, 2024



Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar and Chinese Premier Li Qiang meet in Dublin on January 17th, 2024
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Chinese Premier Li Qiang meet in Dublin on January 17th


DIVE DEEPER:

Additional information and references on the topics covered in this episode:



Taiwan Election 2024 - Results

 On Saturday January 13th, Taiwan went to the polls to vote in their 8th direct presidential election, an election that received unprecedented international attention and has been called the most consequential election in the country's history. While the presidential election grabbed the spotlight, citizens also voted in the legislature elections.

In this Perspectives with Neilo Taiwan 2024 Election Results Special, we present a short update on the election outcome, the acceptance speech of the winning presidential candidate as well as a sample of the international reaction.

Date of Recording: January 13th, 2024



Winning Democratic Progressive Party candidates Lai Ching-te and (VP candidate) Hsiao Bi-khim raise their arms in victory in front of a crowd of their supporters
Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim of the DPP win Taiwan's 2024 Presidential Race


DIVE DEEPER:

Additional information and references on the topics covered in this episode:

Taiwan Election 2024 - Interview with Vincent Chao, DPP

 In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, we bring you Part 2 in our mini series on Taiwan's 2024 Presidential Election and we focus on the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (民進黨) and their candidate, William Lai or Lai Ching-te (賴清德)

As we mentioned in our previous episode, this election outcome will likely have profound implications for Taiwan as it will set the tone for how authoritarian China, who claim Taiwan as their sovereign territory, will advance their expansionist agenda in the future.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) were founded in 1986 a year before the end of martial law. They are one of the two major political parties in Taiwan, the other being the Kuomintang (KMT). We will focus on the KMT's presidential candidate in the next episode.

The DPP has traditionally been associated with economic innovation, safeguarding human rights as well as promotion of Taiwanese nationalism and identity. Their insistence that Taiwan is a de facto sovereign state infuriates China.

The incumbent DPP president, Tsai Ing-wen, is the country's first female president and was re-elected for a second term in January 2020 with a historic 8 million plus votes, the largest number of votes for a presidential candidate in the country's era of direct presidential elections.

Presidential candidates in Taiwan are not allowed to run for a third term, so current Vice President William Lai has been unanimously selected by the DPP as the party's 2024 presidential candidate.

Our guest in this episode is Vincent Chao (@vyctw). He is the Director of International Affairs for the DPP as well as a Taipei City Councilor and Spokesperson for William Lai's campaign. We met him on November 14th to talk about William Lai's background, his policies on energy, foreign relations and much more.

After our interview, on November 20th William Lai officially named Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) as his running mate for the 2024 election. Hsiao has been Taiwan's representative to the United States since 2020. 

We've shared more information on the candidates and the topics covered in this episode as well as the latest polling data from Courtney Donovan Smith published in the Taiwan News in our Dive Deeper section below.

Date of Recording: November 14th, 2023.



DPP Presidential Candidate Lai Ching-te and Vice Presidential Candidate Hsiao Bi-khim


DIVE DEEPER:

Additional information and references on the topics covered in this episode:

  • Democratic Progressive Party - website


China Wake Up Call

The Consultative Forum on International Security Policy took place in Ireland from June 22nd to 27th across three different locations. The initial session was held at UCC with subsequent sessions taking place at UCG and Dublin Castle. The forum was chaired by Louise Richardson DBE and brought together an extensive range of experts who shared their insights on a wide variety of topics including cyber security, lessons from Ireland's UN security council membership, peacekeeping, neutrality, the triple lock, NATO and much more. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine was top of mind for many, China's increasing assertiveness and ongoing support for Russia was less to the fore.

Professor Andrew Cottey (@andrewcottey) who is the EU Jean Monnet Chair in European Political Integration at the Department of Government and Politics at UCC was among the panel of experts. His research interests include Chinese foreign policy, Sino-European relations and European relations with the Asia-Pacific region.

I sat down with him on the third day of the forum in Dublin to talk about China's increasing assertiveness, the perception of China in Ireland, Confucius Institutes, China's influence and disinformation operations and much more.

Date of Recording: June 26th, 2023.



Chinese president Xi Jinping travels in motorcade during military inspection event somewhere in China


DIVE DEEPER

Additional information and references on the topics covered in this episode;

  • Consultative Forum on International Security Policy - link


John McGuinness TD Talks Taiwan

In this episode, I’m chatting with John McGuinness, Fianna Fail TD for Carlow-Kilkenny.

We talk about why Ireland should be building better connections with Taiwan, the One China Policy and China's influence on Irish politics, opposing party view points in his own party and how Ireland's engagement with Taiwan compares with that of other EU states.

Deputy McGuinness was first elected to the Dail (the lower house and principal chamber of the Irish Parliament) in 1997. He was appointed Minister of State at the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment with responsibility for Trade and Commerce in 2007 and has also served as Chair of the Public Accounts Committee. He is currently Chairman of the Finance Committee and also chairs the Ireland-Taiwan Parliamentary Friendship Association.





John McGuinness TD and Ambassador Pierre Yang celebrate Taiwan's National Day, 2022
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