Rare Earths, Real Pressure - China's Coercive Push on U.S.-Taiwan Policy

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long pursued a multi-pronged strategy to annex Taiwan — a campaign that has intensified in recent years. From near-daily military incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and territorial waters to provocative blockade exercises around the island, Beijing is steadily increasing pressure. Alongside these military threats, the CCP is waging a parallel campaign of propaganda, disinformation, and grey-zone activities — including infiltration of Taiwan’s government, military, and broader society.

Now, in a new twist, reports suggest that China’s leader Xi Jinping may use upcoming trade talks with the United States to pressure President Donald Trump into publicly opposing Taiwanese independence. On the surface, this might seem far-fetched — especially with Trump often cast as the “Dealmaker-in-Chief.” So why does Beijing believe it can gain the upper hand?

In this episode, we explore China’s strategic response to U.S. tariffs and examine the leverage the CCP holds in its complex relationship with Washington. We also assess how Trump-era foreign policy is shaping U.S.-Taiwan relations — and how Beijing is exploiting global uncertainty to push forward its authoritarian ambitions.

Typhoon Ragasa Relief Donations - click here for info via Taipei Times


Date of Recording: October 5th, 2025.

Picture shows a hypothetical pile of 'rare earth elements' with a Chinese flag supplanted in it signifying how China is the dominant global supplier of rare earth elements, a position it is using to advance its authoritarian objectives. Listen to our podcast at www.pwneilo.com
Rare Earths, Real Pressure - China's Coercive Push on US-Taiwan Policy

DIVE DEEPER:

Additional Information on the topics covered in this episode:

  • Warsaw Forum 2025 - YouTube (Hsu Szu-Chien)  


Credits:


Sound Soul (This Logo Reveal) by Diamond_Tunes via Pixabay


Chinese Asian Music by SoundGalleryDT via Pixabay


Translator voice by ElevenLabs.io


#ChinaTaiwan, #TaiwanStrait, #TaiwanUnderThreat, #ChinaThreat, #USChinaRelations, #IndoPacific, #XiJinping, #Taiwan, #TaiwanIndependence, #CCP, #Geopolitics, #TradeWar, #RareEarths, #Trump, #ChinaLeverage, #Podcast, #Talk, #PodcastAlert

Why You Should Care About Taiwan

 Our daily news feeds are dominated by active conflicts—but what about the tensions simmering just below the surface, with global stakes just as high?

One of the most strategically significant, yet underreported flashpoints in the world is the Taiwan Strait—a 180km-wide body of international water separating Taiwan from mainland China. It's here that grey zone activity by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is escalating on a near-daily basis.

In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, we explore:

  • The CCP’s claim on Taiwan—and why it’s historically weaker than Britain's claim on Ireland,

  • Taiwan’s democratic identity and its people’s overwhelming rejection of CCP rule,

  • The rise of grey zone warfare, military drills, and coercive tactics by China,

  • The impact of U.S. strategic ambiguity and why the U.S. might be pulled into a war with China,

  • Why Europe and the West must care about Taiwan’s future.

My guest is Bill Emmott (X: @bill_emmott) —author of Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict over Taiwan (2024), former editor-in-chief of The Economist, and one of the most respected voices in international affairs. We recorded this episode on the sidelines of the MacGill Summer School in July.

We dive deep into the risks of conflict, the future of U.S.-China relations, and how the world can avoid sleepwalking into a war over Taiwan.


Date of Recording: July 18th, 2025.

 Map shows the locations of China’s military drills around Taiwan. The blue blocks represent war games held in 2022, the yellow and red blocks represent the “Joint Sword 2024” drills. Ref info - see Dive Deeper.


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Music:
even darker variation by SamuelFJohanns via Pixabay
Cinematic Piano Ambient Trailer Soundtrack by Open-Music-for-Videos via Pixabay


#Taiwan #China #Geopolitics #IndoPacific #ForeignPolicy #USChinaRelations #SouthChinaSea #TaiwanStrait #PLA #CCP #Podcast #PodcastEpisode #BillEmmott #GreyZoneWarfare #StrategicAmbiguity #TaiwanDefense #TaiwanSovereignty #ChinaThreat #MacGill2025 #TaiwanMatters #StandwithTaiwan #TaiwanInFocus


EU-China Trade Tensions - Interview with Finbarr Bermingham

The European Union’s trade deficit with China has doubled over the past decade, fueling growing frustration in Brussels over what officials describe as a flood of low-cost Chinese products into the EU. 


Beijing’s continued support for Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine is also a major sticking point. The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas called China the “key enabler” of Putin’s war and urged Beijing to halt its support to Russia’s military-industrial base. In response, China has indicated that it does not want to see Russia lose the war.

It was not surprising then that a summit in Beijing between top EU and Chinese leaders at the end of July produced few tangible results.

 

Just ahead of the summit, I spoke with Finbarr Bermingham (X:@fbermingham), Europe Correspondent for the South China Morning Post, to explore what’s really driving the tensions in EU–China trade. We discussed the growing trade imbalance and how China’s rare earth export controls and unwavering support for Russia are reshaping the relationship.


Date of Recording: July 18th, 2025.




Picture shows Chinese President Xi Jinping on the left with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the right. Both leaders pictures are in black and white set against the background of their regions flags which are in colour. Listen to Perspectives at www.pwneilo.com
Chinese leader, Xi Jinping (L) and
EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen (R)


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    #ChinaEU, #TradeTensions, #GeopoliticsPodcast, #Geopolitics, #RareEarths, #UkraineWar, #EUForeignPolicy, #ChinaRussia, #EUChinaSummit, #IPI, #FSR, #ForeignSubsidiesRegulation, #EU-ChinaNews, #rareearthminerals, #rareearthmineralschina


    Taiwan's Hot Summer - Recalls, Tariffs and Tensions

     It has been a sweltering few months in Taiwan's political scene with partisanship intensifying in domestic politics, increased cross-strait tensions and unfolding US tariffs.

    At the end of June, I was fortunate to meet up with two of Taiwan's leading columnists and political analysts from the central city of Taichung.

    Courtney Donovan Smith (X: @donovan_smith ) is a staff columnist with the Taipei Times whose regular column, Donovan's Deep Dives shares in-depth analysis on everything about Taiwan's political scene and geopolitics. He is also the central Taiwan correspondent for ICRT FM Radio. 

    Michael Turton (X: @michaelturton ) is also a contributing columnist for the Taipei Times. His column, Notes from Central Taiwan provides incisive commentary informed by three decades of living in and writing about his adoptive country.

    I met up with Donovan and Michael to talk about the lead up to the Great Recall vote, President Lai's leadership, party dynamics, trade pressures and what it all means for Taiwan's future.

    Date of Recording, June 24th, 2025.



    Picture shows Taipei cityscape with the sun shining through an orange sky as Taipei downtown bakes in the summer heat.


    DIVE DEEPER:

    Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:





    #TaiwanPolitics, #CrossStraitTensions, #PresidentLai, #TaiwanPodcast, #USChinaTrade, #USTariffs, #TaiwanRecall, #PartisanPolitics, #EastAsiaPolitics, #TaiwanNews, #TaipeiTimes, #ICRT, #MichaelTurton, #CourtneyDonovanSmith, #NeiloPodcast, #AsiaGeopolitics, Geopolitics 


    Taiwan's Great Recall - July 26th Results

    On July 26th, nearly one-third of Taiwan’s electorate were eligible to vote in the first wave of what’s being called Taiwan's Great Recall (大罷免) — a rarely used mechanism allowing voters to dismiss nationally elected lawmakers midterm. This marks the first time the process has been deployed on such a large scale with 24 lawmakers from the Kuomintang (KMT) or Chinese Nationalist Party on the ballot.

    The vote result is being closely watched as it has the potential to alter the balance of power in Taiwan’s parliament, which has seen months of political deadlock between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government and the opposition KMT and their allies.

    In this episode we dive into the outcome of that vote. We break down the results, highlight the key takeaways, discuss the reactions and review how these results are likely to shape the remaining term of Taiwan’s current administration.


    Date of Recording: July 26th, 2025




    The title Taiwan's Great Recall - July 26th Results sits in front of a backdrop of a picture of protesters and campaigners gathered on a street in Taiwan late in the evening as they all pay attention to a speaker on a stage in the distance.




    DIVE DEEPER:


    Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:


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    Other episodes in Taiwan's Great Recall series:


    #Taiwan, #GreatRecall, #KMTRecall, #DPP, #ChinaInfluence, #Taiwanelection, #RecallVote2025, #TaiwanDemocracy, #PoliticalPodcast, #Geopolitics, #ProDemocracy, #DemocracyInAsia, #TaiwanVotes, #CivicEngagement, #GreatRecall2025, #ProtectDemocracy, #大罷免

    Taiwan's Great Recall - Ep4 - Interview with Wang Hung-wei Recall Group

    Welcome to the fourth installment in our series on Taiwan’s Great Recall in which we aim to bring you perspectives from all sides of the debate at this important juncture in Taiwan’s democratic journey. 


    As we explained in previous episodes, this unprecedented KMT 中國國民黨 recall stems from a public backlash against months of legislative gridlock, budgetary obstruction, and interference with Taiwan’s highest court—including accusations of collusion with the Chinese Communist Party.  


    While the recall effort is mostly organized by civil society organizations, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 民主進步黨 has recently begun to engage more visibly as the first voting day approaches. Taiwan’s President and DPP leader Lai Ching-te 賴清德 has also been conducting a series of 10 speeches at various civic centers around Taiwan which media reports indicate is a likely effort to boost DPP turnout in the voting.


    Clearly, if enough KMT lawmakers are unseated and the DPP can reclaim their seats in the follow-on election, it would dramatically shift the balance of power in Taiwan’s parliament.


    One of the KMT candidates on the recall ballot for July 26th is Wang Hung-wei 王鴻薇.  She is the deputy secretary general of the KMT legislative caucus and was last elected to the single seater District 3 in Taipei in 2024 with over 52% of the vote. Prior to becoming a national politician she was a Taipei City councillor and before that worked in Journalism.


    While Wang Hung-wei is no stranger to controversy, people we spoke to say they are most concerned about her close ties to China. They cite her visit to Beijing in 2024 with KMT caucus whip Fu Kun-Chi 傅崐萁 and their meeting with top CCP politburo official Wang Huning 王滬寧 - a meeting for which they were not able to obtain any readout. 

    The reason many constituents worry about such meetings is because Wang Huning is credited with being the CCP’s  leading ideologist since the 1980s and is also the leader of the organization tasked with what the CCP call the  “peaceful reunification of Taiwan". 


    At the end of June, I went along to a neighborhood gathering at a small cafe in the Songshan district of Taipei. It was organized by the Wang Hung-wei recall group (Insta @wanghongwei2025gg). 


    I was interested to find out more about the group, 

    • hear about the concerns that were causing them to recall Wang Hong Wei and 

    • get their reactions to the questions and accusations from the anti-recall camp, and lots more!


     Date of Recording: June 27th, 2025.



    KMT Lawmaker Wang Hung-wei gives a speech with her fist held high in the air while being flanked by two KMT supporters. Listen to our podcast at www.pwneilo.com or by searching for Perspectives with Neilo wherever you get your podcasts.
    KMT lawmaker Wang Hung-wei 王鴻薇 who is up for recall vote on July 26th gives a speech during an anti-recall rally.


    DIVE DEEPER:

    Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:

    • 2025 Taiwanese recall votes - wiki


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    #TaiwanPolitics, #TaiwanRecall, #DemocracyinAction, #KMTRecall, #TaiwanElections, #RecallVote2025, #CivicEngagement, #TaiwanDemocracy, #PerspectiveswithNeilo, #politicalPodcast, #TaiwanPodcasts, #GrassRootsMovement, #ProDemocracy, #ElectoralReform, #CivilSocietyVoices, #StopCCPInfluence, #TaiwanVotes, #peoplePower, #July26Recall








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