Our daily news feeds are dominated by active conflicts—but what about the tensions simmering just below the surface, with global stakes just as high?
One of the most strategically significant, yet underreported flashpoints in the world is the Taiwan Strait—a 180km-wide body of international water separating Taiwan from mainland China. It's here that grey zone activity by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is escalating on a near-daily basis.
In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, we explore:
The CCP’s claim on Taiwan—and why it’s historically weaker than Britain's claim on Ireland,
Taiwan’s democratic identity and its people’s overwhelming rejection of CCP rule,
The rise of grey zone warfare, military drills, and coercive tactics by China,
The impact of U.S. strategic ambiguity and why the U.S. might be pulled into a war with China,
Why Europe and the West must care about Taiwan’s future.
My guest is Bill Emmott (X: @bill_emmott) —author of Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict over Taiwan (2024), former editor-in-chief of The Economist, and one of the most respected voices in international affairs. We recorded this episode on the sidelines of the MacGill Summer School in July.
We dive deep into the risks of conflict, the future of U.S.-China relations, and how the world can avoid sleepwalking into a war over Taiwan.
Date of Recording: July 18th, 2025.
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Map shows the locations of China’s military drills around Taiwan. The blue blocks represent war games held in 2022, the yellow and red blocks represent the “Joint Sword 2024” drills. Ref info - see Dive Deeper. |
DIVE DEEPER:
Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:
- Bill Emmott's Global View Substack
- Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict Over Taiwan by Bill Emmott, World of Books
- Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense - Lindsay Maizland and Clara Fong, Council on Foreign Relations (March 19th, 2025)
- Taiwanese / Chinese Identity Survey, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University
- Commentary: Embarrassing South China Sea collision has done more than physical damage - Koh Swee Lean Collin, CNA (August 22nd, 2025) - includes link to video
- Taiwan 'issue' is an internal matter, China says in response to Trump - Reuters (August 18th, 2025)
- Visiting key partners in Asia: Foreign Minister Wadephul travels to Japan and Indonesia - Federal Foreign Office (August 17th, 2025)
- Xi Jinping vows to oppose Taiwan 'pro-independence' influences as third term begins - Rhonda Kwan and agencies, The Guardian (March 13th, 2023)
- Xi: China will not rule out force in Taiwan - DW News (October 16th, 2022)
- IN FOCUS: China military drills shorter, but more intense - Ben Blanchard and Greg Torode, Reuters via Taipei Times. Contains details on thumbnail graphic. (October 16th, 2022)
Podcasts You Might Also Like:
- A Strait Blockade is NOT Stable Trade (April 2025)
- Shining a Light on China's Gray Zone - Interview with Ray Powell, Stanford University (November 2024)
Music:
even darker variation by SamuelFJohanns via Pixabay
Cinematic Piano Ambient Trailer Soundtrack by Open-Music-for-Videos via Pixabay
