Regular listeners to Perspectives with Neilo will likely be familiar with China's escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait by means of large scale military exercises and daily incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and territorial waters, not to mention, cyber attacks and direct threats against anyone who supports Taiwan's sovereignty. Not the type of behavior that might lead you to believe that China is a peaceful superpower!
Under the reign of former General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Hu Jintao, the term "China's peaceful rise", or "China's peaceful development" was an official policy and political slogan which sought to assure China's neighbors and the international community that China's growing political, economic and military power would not pose a threat to international peace and security. It sought to rebut any question that China was a threat and re-establish the view of China as a non-threatening world power.
But while the Chinese Communist Party's propaganda says one thing, China's actions say differently.
In 2023, Hu Jintao's successor, Xi Jinping upset many countries in the Asia-Pacific region after releasing a new official map that laid claim to most of the South China Sea, as well as to contested parts of India and Russia. This rekindled awareness that China (aka the People's Republic of China or PRC) has active border disputes with at least 13 of its neighbors. This includes at least 7 countries on its land borders (among them Bhutan, India, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam) as well as maritime disputes with countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines.
From a maritime perspective, China claims over 1.3 million square miles surrounding shoals and islands in the South China Sea, inside what it call its nine-dash line, and it has moved closer to demanding exclusive economic and military rights over the vast majority of this area in recent decades, despite a direct conflict with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which we discuss in our interview.
But so much for border disputes between governments, what do the ordinary people of these neighboring countries think ?
In a recent survey by Pew Research (linked below) carried out among 10 of China's neighbors, a median of 72% of people surveyed say they are concerned about China's territorial disputes. Topping this list is the Philippines, of which 91% of people surveyed are either concerned or very concerned about China's aggressive claims.
So what exactly is behind this very high level of concern in the Philippines?
China and the Philippines have been clashing over the Second Thomas Shoal, known in the Philippines as the Ayungin Shoal, which is part of the Spratly Islands. The shoal lies within the Philippines' 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) which is located over 600 miles (1000 km) from the coast of mainland China. The Philippines maintains a small military contingent there, onboard a disintegrating ship, the Sierra Madre, which Manila intentionally grounded in 1999 to reinforce its control of the area.
There have been a plethora of clashes between the Chinese coast guard and different Philippine vessels in recent months. In March of 2024, the Philippines called out China for its coast guard's "reckless" and "illegal" actions that led to a collision between a Chinese and Philippine ship, damaging the latter and injuring some of its crew, during a resupply mission for troops to the Sierra Madre. China says the Philippine vessel illegally intruded into waters adjacent to the shoal.
In June, in one of the worst flare-ups of violence, the Chinese coast guard rammed and intercepted a Philippine navy resupply mission, and then proceeded to board the Philippine boats armed with knives. The skirmish caused injuries among the Philippine personnel and damaged some of the Philippines' ships, which China then seized and tried to tow away.
The Philippine response has been to expose China's actions and collaborate with its allies, particularly Japan and the USA which as you might imagine, has not gone down well with the Chinese Communist Party!
Philippine Defense Secretary, Gilberto Teodoro recently told the Financial Times in an interview that "This is an existential issue for us." "We do not seek conflict. But we will not back down if what is ours is illegally taken by somebody, especially a bully."
In May of 2024, I spoke with Dr. Charmaine Willoughby who is an Associate Professor in the Department of International Studies at De La Salle University in Manila. We talked about the history of China - Philippine relations, how the current tensions are affecting the Philippine fishing community and the public's attitudes towards China and how China's behavior is influencing her country's foreign policy approach.
Date of Recording: May 17th, 2024
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Map of South China Sea showing China's so-called nine-dash line and the Spratly Islands.
Inset picture is courtesy of the Armed Forces of the Philippines and shows a member of China coast guard threatening an AFP soldier with a pickaxe during the humanitarian rotation and resupply mission at the Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal) on June 17th, 2024.
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Follow up note:
On July 22nd, international media reported that China and the Philippines had reached a deal they hope will end confrontations at the Second Thomas Shoal / Ayungin Shoal. While the text of the agreement was not released, many analysts have cast doubt on whether the temporary deal between Manila and Beijing will ever be implemented. Time will tell whether or this occasion, China can live up to its aspiration of being a peaceful superpower.
DIVE DEEPER:
Additional information on the topics covered in this episode;
- Philippines says China poses 'existential' threat in South China Sea - A.Anantha Lakshmi, Financial Times (June 12th, 2024)
- Territorial disputes of the People's Republic of China - wiki
Photo Credit: Armed Forces of the Philippines - link #Taiwan, #Philippines, #SouthChinaSea, #SecondThomasShoal, #China, #CCP, #ChinaCoastGuard, #SierraMadre, #UNCLOS, #SCS, #Ninedashline
