Showing posts with label #UNCLOS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #UNCLOS. Show all posts

Taiwan Strait Tensions - China's Latest Move Explained

China insists it is a force for peace, stability and development—but do its actions match its rhetoric?

In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, we examine China's latest grey zone operations around Taiwan, where Chinese Coast Guard vessels began issuing commands to foreign commercial ships operating in waters east of the island. Security analysts warn these seemingly routine maritime patrols may represent something far more significant: a gradual attempt to reshape the status quo in the Taiwan Strait without firing a shot.


We explore why recent maritime boundary negotiations between Japan and the Philippines triggered such a strong response from Beijing, what China's expanding claims over Taiwan's surrounding waters mean under international law and UNCLOS, and why experts believe these developments could have profound implications for regional security and freedom of navigation throughout the Indo-Pacific.

This episode also examines China's rapidly expanding military capabilities, growing security cooperation between countries including Australia, Japan and the Philippines, and how organisations such as AUKUS and the Quad are responding to an increasingly assertive Beijing.


Is China acting as a responsible global power seeking regional stability—or is it using incremental coercion to advance its strategic ambitions?

We separate the headlines from the geopolitics to examine what these developments could mean for Taiwan, the wider Indo-Pacific and the future of international maritime law.


In this episode:
• China's latest Coast Guard operations around Taiwan
• Grey zone warfare explained
• The Taiwan Strait and international maritime law (UNCLOS)
• Japan–Philippines maritime negotiations
• China's military build-up and regional security
• Freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific
• AUKUS, the Quad and the changing balance of power


If you enjoy independent analysis of geopolitics, international relations, foreign influence and global security, be sure to follow Perspectives with Neilo wherever you listen to podcasts and subscribe to our blog here for additional resources and further reading.


Date of Recording: July 1st, 2026



China Coast Guard Ship patrols the waters around Taiwan. Insert (L) Prime Minister of Japan Takaichi held a summit meeting with H.E. Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos, Jr., President of the Republic of the Philippines on May 8th, 2026. Insert (R) China Coast Guard Crewman radios ships in 'PRC Costal Waters'
China Coast Guard Ship patrols the waters around Taiwan.
Insert (L) Prime Minister of Japan Takaichi held a summit meeting with H.E. Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos, Jr., President of the Republic of the Philippines on May 28th, 2026.
Insert (R) China Coast Guard Crewman radios ships in 'PRC Costal Waters'




DIVE DEEPER


Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:

  • Statement by British Office Taipei, Bureau Francais De Taipei and Deutsches Institut Taipei via Finbarr Bermingham on X (June 25th, 2026)
  • Japan - Philippines Summit Meeting - Prime Minister's Office of Japan (May 28th, 2026) - Part 1 and Part 2
  • United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea - UNCLOS pdf
  • IN FULL: The Hon.Richard Marles MP Addresses the National Press Club of Australia - YouTube (April 17th, 2026)


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Audio Credits:

Dark Suspense Thriller by Alex Morgan via Pixabay

Sound Soul (This Logo Reveal) by Diamond_Tunes via Pixabay 


Excerpt from The Hon. Richard Marles MP, Deputy Prime Minister of Australia’s speech at the National Press Club of Australia on "Launch of the 2026 National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Program" via National Press Club of Australia You Tube Channel (see link above)


China's Aggression Uniting Nations

 In our previous episode - China's Maritime Aggression - we reviewed China's relations with its neighbors and in particular with the Philippines, including the recent clashes between China's coast guard and Philippine vessels at Ayungin Shoal (aka Second Thomas Shoal) in the West Philippine Sea. I'd highly recommend that you take a moment to listen to that episode first before diving in here if you haven't already done so.

Beijing and Manila have been locked in a tense standoff in recent months as China continues to press claims to almost the entire South China Sea, despite a 2016 International Tribunal ruling that its claims have no legal basis.

It was hoped that an agreement reached in late July on resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal would help to smooth relations between China and the Philippines, however as many analysts had warned,  this turned out not to be the case. 

In this episode, we review some of the key events since late July that appear to be contributing to increased tensions. These include China's ongoing military exercises in the South China Sea as well as joint patrols carried out between the Philippines, its allies and its neighbors. Tensions reached a dangerous peak during an encounter between China's PLAAF fighter jets and a  Philippines Air Force patrol plane on August 8th in the skies over Bajo De Masinloc (aka Scarborough Shoal) during which the PLAAF dropped flares in the path of the Philippines' plane. The event was caught on video and can be seen on social media by @FMangosingINQ here. 

In this podcast we share the official response from the Philippines to this encounter, as well as a statement from China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Mao Ning. We also discuss how China's increasingly aggressive behavior is driving its neighbors to form stronger alliances as well as views from analysts on what might lay behind China's increased aggression.

Date of Recording: August 15th, 2024.




The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), in collaboration with the armed forces of Australia, Canada, and United States of America conducted a Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA) in the Western Command (WESCOM) within Philippine exclusive economic zone in early August. Picture shows a Filipino marine observing a helicopter flying past a navy vessel..
The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), in collaboration with the armed forces of Australia, Canada, and United States of America conducted a Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA) in the Western Command (WESCOM) within Philippine exclusive economic zone in early August 2024.



DIVE DEEPER:

Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:


  • @BRPSierraMadre explains China's use of "Cabbage Tactics" to assert dominance and expand its control in the South China Sea

  • Facts First Podcast - Christian Esguerra talks with David Nye about his experience working for the Global Times and his thoughts on China's aggression against the Philippines and in the South China Sea.



Photo Credits:    Armed Forces of the Philippines - link
                        Frances Mangosing - link 

#Philippines, #SouthChinaSea, #SecondThomasShoal, #China, #CCP, #ChinaCoastGuard, #BRPSierraMadre, #UNCLOS, #SCS, #Ninedashline, #CabbageTactics, #LittleBlueMen, #SouthChinaSeaDispute, #SouthChinaSeaConflict

China's Maritime Aggression

 Regular listeners to Perspectives with Neilo will likely be familiar with China's escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait by means of large scale military exercises and daily incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and territorial waters, not to mention, cyber attacks and direct threats against anyone who supports Taiwan's sovereignty. Not the type of behavior that might lead you to believe that China is a peaceful superpower!

Under the reign of former General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Hu Jintao, the term "China's peaceful rise", or "China's peaceful development" was an official policy and political slogan which sought to assure China's neighbors and the international community that China's growing political, economic and military power would not pose a threat to international peace and security. It sought to rebut any question that China was a threat and re-establish the view of China as a non-threatening world power.

But while the Chinese Communist Party's propaganda says one thing, China's actions say differently.

In 2023, Hu Jintao's successor, Xi Jinping upset many countries in the Asia-Pacific region after releasing a new official map that laid claim to most of the South China Sea, as well as to contested parts of India and Russia. This rekindled awareness that China (aka the People's Republic of China or PRC) has active border disputes with at least 13 of its neighbors. This includes at least 7 countries on its land borders (among them Bhutan, India, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam) as well as maritime disputes with countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines.

From a maritime perspective, China claims over 1.3 million square miles surrounding shoals and islands in the South China Sea, inside what it call its nine-dash line, and it has moved closer to demanding exclusive economic and military rights over the vast majority of this area in recent decades, despite a direct conflict with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which we discuss in our interview.

But so much for border disputes between governments, what do the ordinary people of these neighboring countries think ?

In a recent survey by Pew Research (linked below) carried out among 10 of China's neighbors, a median of 72% of people surveyed say they are concerned about China's territorial disputes. Topping this list is the Philippines, of which 91% of people surveyed are either concerned or very concerned about China's aggressive claims.

So what exactly is behind this very high level of concern in the Philippines?

China and the Philippines have been clashing over the Second Thomas Shoal, known in the Philippines as the Ayungin Shoal, which is part of the Spratly Islands. The shoal lies within the Philippines' 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) which is located over 600 miles (1000 km) from the coast of mainland China. The Philippines maintains a small military contingent there, onboard a disintegrating ship, the Sierra Madre, which Manila intentionally grounded in 1999 to reinforce its control of the area.

There have been a plethora of clashes between the Chinese coast guard and different Philippine vessels in recent months. In March of 2024, the Philippines called out China for its coast guard's "reckless" and "illegal" actions that led to a collision between a Chinese and Philippine ship, damaging the latter and injuring some of its crew, during a resupply mission for troops to the Sierra Madre. China says the Philippine vessel illegally intruded into waters adjacent to the shoal.

In June, in one of the worst flare-ups of violence, the Chinese coast guard rammed and intercepted a Philippine navy resupply mission, and then proceeded to board the Philippine boats armed with knives. The skirmish caused injuries among the Philippine personnel and damaged some of the Philippines' ships, which China then seized and tried to tow away.

The Philippine response has been to expose China's actions and collaborate with its allies, particularly Japan and the USA which as you might imagine, has not gone down well with the Chinese Communist Party!

Philippine Defense Secretary, Gilberto Teodoro recently told the Financial Times in an interview that "This is an existential issue for us." "We do not seek conflict. But we will not back down if what is ours is illegally taken by somebody, especially a bully." 

In May of 2024, I spoke with Dr. Charmaine Willoughby who is an Associate Professor in the Department of International Studies at De La Salle University in Manila. We talked about the history of China - Philippine relations, how the current tensions are affecting the Philippine fishing community and the public's attitudes towards China and how China's behavior is influencing her country's foreign policy approach.


Date of Recording: May 17th, 2024



Map of South China Sea showing China's so-called nine-dash line and the Spratly Islands. Inset picture is courtesy of the Armed Forces of the Philippines and shows a member of China coast guard threatening an AFP soldier with a pickaxe during the humanitarian rotation and resupply mission at the Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal) on June 17th, 2024.
Map of South China Sea showing China's so-called nine-dash line and the Spratly Islands.
Inset picture is courtesy of the Armed Forces of the Philippines and shows a member of China coast guard threatening an AFP soldier with a pickaxe during the humanitarian rotation and resupply mission at the Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal) on June 17th, 2024.


Follow up note:

On July 22nd, international media reported that China and the Philippines had reached a deal they hope will end confrontations at the Second Thomas Shoal / Ayungin Shoal. While the text of the agreement was not released, many analysts have cast doubt on whether the temporary deal between Manila and Beijing will ever be implemented. Time will tell whether or this occasion, China can live up to its aspiration of being a peaceful superpower.


DIVE DEEPER:

Additional information on the topics covered in this episode;

  • Philippines says China poses 'existential' threat in South China Sea - A.Anantha Lakshmi, Financial Times (June 12th, 2024)
  • Territorial disputes of the People's Republic of China - wiki

Photo Credit: Armed Forces of the Philippines - link

#Taiwan, #Philippines, #SouthChinaSea, #SecondThomasShoal, #China, #CCP, #ChinaCoastGuard, #SierraMadre, #UNCLOS, #SCS, #Ninedashline


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